Bitcoin rose with the rest of the crypto market on Monday after President Donald Trump struck a mixed tone on a possible deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a relief rally that lifted prices but left the broader market setup unresolved.
According to CryptoSlate’s data, the largest cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $70,000 before retracing to around $69,500. This had helped push the total crypto market capitalization up to $2.5 trillion, an 11-day high.
The move followed two conflicting messages from Trump over the weekend. In a Truth Social post, he warned that Iran would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. However, in a subsequent Fox News interview, he said Iran was “negotiating now” and that there was a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.
Notably, Trump had initially given Iran a 10-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His latest comments suggested Tehran now had until Tuesday, with US attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges threatened if the waterway was not reopened.
At the same time, his remarks on negotiations opened the possibility, however tentative, that the conflict could shift toward diplomacy rather than immediate escalation.
That was enough to lift sentiment in a market that had become heavily skewed toward caution after more than a month of war, rising oil prices, and mounting fears of broader economic damage.
Crypto traders responded to that prospect by lifting prices across the market, but Monday’s move did not amount to a decisive break from the pattern that has defined trading since the conflict began.
Why this Bitcoin rally is still fragile
The latest advance pushed Bitcoin back toward the top of the band that has contained every major rally and selloff since the war began. The move was sharp enough to show that positioning had become too bearish, but it was not strong enough to establish a new trend.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, told CryptoSlate that BTC’s price action remained restrained, as the digital asset remains trapped in the broader $60,000 to $70,000 range.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, corroborated this view, while pointing out that Bitcoin continues to hold the $65,000 to $70,000 range as it tries to form a base. He explained that the current zone is supported by prior highs, the Bitcoin-gold ratio, and the token’s deviation from its power-law curve.
That view fits the current tape. Bitcoin has recovered toward the upper end of its five-week war range, but the broader structure has not changed. The roughly $65,000 to $73,000 channel that has framed recent price action remains intact, leaving today’s rebound looking more like a recovery within an established range than the start of a clean breakout.
Timmer also pointed to a shift in exchange-traded product flows that helps explain why Bitcoin responded quickly once the geopolitical tone softened. When Bitcoin peaked last October, he said, flows left Bitcoin and moved toward gold.
Now, as gold loses some momentum and Bitcoin begins to regain footing, those flows have started to reverse. In his telling, gold has begun acting more like Bitcoin, while Bitcoin has started acting more like gold.
That gives the rally a clearer context. Bitcoin is not moving in isolation from macro conditions, and it is not trading like an asset that has fully escaped the war-driven pressure bearing down on risk markets.
It is responding to the same combination of sentiment, positioning, and shifting expectations that have shaped oil, equities, and broader cross-asset trading since the conflict intensified.
That left Monday’s rally dependent on a headline shift rather than a clear change in underlying market strength.
The move was strong enough to unwind shorts and push Bitcoin back toward the top of its range, but not strong enough to remove doubts about whether the market could sustain those gains if the ceasefire talk faltered or oil resumed climbing.
A prolonged conflict could still put $10,000 back on the table
Meanwhile, this BTC rebound also did not eliminate the deeper downside case that has been building around the top crypto as the war has dragged on.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has argued that Bitcoin could still fall toward $10,000 in 2026 if the macro backdrop deteriorates further.
McGlone said Bitcoin may be reverting toward the area where it was most heavily traded after futures launched in 2017, while facing a market now crowded with alternative tokens and increasingly dominated by the growth of dollar-backed stablecoins.
He tied the downside case to the risk of an equity market rollover and a fresh rise in volatility, conditions that would place more pressure on Bitcoin if macro stress intensifies.
That scenario remains well outside the range implied by Monday’s price action, but it has not been invalidated by a single relief rally.
CryptoSlate had previously reported that a prolonged US-Iran standoff, a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or a wider regional war severe enough to push oil toward $150 to $200 a barrel would tighten global liquidity much more sharply and could drag equities down by more than 30%.
Under those conditions, the $10,000 case would no longer look like an extreme outlier but rather a stress scenario that markets would need to consider more seriously.
Misir also supports caution, noting that the same market that can rise on a headline suggesting negotiations are progressing remains exposed to the pressure from war, oil, and weaker risk appetite.
If the diplomatic opening fades and the energy shock worsens, the support that lifted Bitcoin at the start of the week becomes much harder to defend.
Notably, oil remains central to that calculation. Crude climbed back toward $112 a barrel on Monday morning as the war and the disruption around Hormuz fed concerns about supply and inflation. The Kobeissi Letter estimated that if those levels persist for another seven weeks, US CPI inflation could rise to around 3.7%.
According to Misir:
“Inflation risk is alive, policy flexibility is limited, and growth has to absorb the shock.”
Against that backdrop, Misir concluded that BTC’s next move will depend on inflation data and the Federal Reserve.
He explained that the upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI Index would show whether policymakers still see inflation as manageable after the oil shock, or whether the war is reinforcing expectations that rate cuts will stay off the table.
