Peter Schiff says the next major market crash will begin in the bond market, not in Bitcoin (BTC). The longtime gold proponent argues that rising U.S. Treasury yields, not crypto volatility, pose the real threat to global markets.
On his latest podcast, Schiff warned that a breakdown in Treasuries could ripple through stocks, housing, and cryptocurrencies. He expects investors to eventually flee into gold as those risk assets unwind together.
Why Schiff Says the Market Crash Starts With Bonds
The warning centers on a bond market that Schiff says has already begun to break. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.5%, while the 30-year has climbed toward 5%, according to Treasury figures. He expects both to head sharply higher.
Rising yields lift borrowing costs everywhere. Schiff argues that this would pressure stocks, deepen a housing affordability problem, and slow growth. The average 30-year mortgage already sits at 6.49%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, a level that keeps many buyers away.
A deeper housing slump would then force the Federal Reserve to step in, he says. That would mean more money printing and higher inflation.
Both outcomes, in his view, favor precious metals. Gold now trades above $4,100 an ounce, having recovered after it slipped below $4,000 in June.
Why He Says Bitcoin Won’t Be Spared
Bitcoin has held up better than many of Schiff’s critics expected. The token trades near $64,200, with a market cap around $1.29 trillion. Even so, it sits roughly 49% below its record of $126,080 from October 2025.
That drawdown, Schiff argues, already shows Bitcoin does not behave like a safe haven. He expects it to fall further when stocks drop, rather than hold firm like gold.
“Although I believe that when tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will be correlated. It just doesn’t go up when tech stocks go up. But when tech stocks go down, it’s gonna go down a lot more,” he said in the podcast.
He also doubts Wall Street’s public optimism. Major banks still hold bullish Bitcoin targets, yet the weak performance of Strategy’s preferred shares suggests investors privately question those calls.
The strain runs deeper at MicroStrategy itself. Michael Saylor’s firm is the largest corporate holder, with more than 840,000 BTC.
It has started selling Bitcoin to fund dividends on those securities. Schiff has long warned the model would buckle, including a controversial call for a steeper decline to $20,000.
“I do believe that the precious metals market is setting up for a major move up and the stock market is setting up for a major move down,” he stated.
Whether the bond market cracks the way he predicts remains far from certain. Many analysts still expect yields to ease if inflation cools.
In the meantime, however, his thesis hands investors a clear signal to watch. The next few weeks of Treasury moves may test it.
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