Bitcoin (BTC) is once again facing renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain its brief rebound above $105,000. The leading cryptocurrency is now struggling to hold key short-term support levels, and analysts warn that a decisive break below $100,000 could open the door for deeper losses in the days ahead.
Bitcoin’s Recovery Stalls Below $105,500
After a short-lived attempt to reclaim the $105,500 zone earlier this week, Bitcoin’s price momentum weakened, sending it back into a downward trajectory. The digital asset failed to hold above the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA) and slipped below $104,000, signaling growing bearish control in the market.
According to trading data, BTC formed a recent swing high at $107,400 before sellers re-entered the market. The coin then dropped sharply, breaking through several key support levels — including the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its last major rally from $99,220 to $107,400.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands below $104,000, hovering around a crucial pivot zone near $101,200 that could determine the next directional move.
Technical Analysis: Bears Tighten Their Grip
On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, a clear bearish trend line has formed with resistance around $103,300, further reinforcing downward pressure. Unless the price can break and close above this trend line, short-term sentiment is likely to remain negative.
If bulls attempt another rebound, the first immediate resistance lies near $102,500, followed by the trend line barrier at $103,300. Beyond that, stronger resistance sits around $103,500 and $105,000, which have both acted as rejection zones over the past week.
A successful close above $105,500 could potentially shift momentum back in favor of buyers, with the next upside targets near $106,800 and $107,000. However, such a move would likely require renewed institutional demand or a broader risk-on sentiment across global markets.
Support Levels in Focus: $101K, $100K, and Beyond
On the downside, Bitcoin’s immediate support stands at $101,200, corresponding to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the prior uptrend. Should BTC fall decisively below this level, the next key support lies at $100,500 — a zone that has repeatedly acted as both a psychological and technical cushion.
If sellers breach the $100,000 handle, Bitcoin could face a sharper correction toward $98,800, with the final major support seen around $96,500. A move below that would likely trigger further panic selling, potentially dragging BTC deeper into a bearish phase.
Market analysts note that the $100,000 mark remains a critical psychological level. Holding above it is essential to maintaining long-term bullish sentiment. “If Bitcoin loses the $100K support, we could see short-term capitulation before buyers step back in,” one trader commented on X (formerly Twitter).
Broader Market Context
Bitcoin’s recent struggles come amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainty and declining risk appetite among investors. Concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, inflation, and interest rates have weighed heavily on risk assets, while the stock market continues to experience choppy sessions.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both recorded volatile swings this week, reflecting broader caution across global financial markets. As a result, crypto traders have remained defensive, with many preferring to sit on the sidelines until a clearer market trend emerges.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have slowed after a strong start earlier this month, indicating that institutional investors are taking a wait-and-see approach as BTC consolidates around the six-figure threshold.
Market Sentiment Weakens
On-chain metrics also paint a cautious picture. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant show a gradual decline in short-term holder profitability, with realized profits falling as prices remain under pressure. Exchange inflows have slightly increased, suggesting that some traders may be moving coins onto platforms in preparation for potential selling.
However, long-term holders — or “whales” — continue to show resilience. Accumulation patterns suggest that while retail traders are trimming exposure, large investors are still taking advantage of dips to strengthen their positions, betting on a medium-term recovery.
Analysts Remain Split on Bitcoin’s Next Move
Technical analysts remain divided on where Bitcoin is headed next. Some argue that the ongoing correction is a necessary cooldown before another leg higher, while others warn that the market could test lower levels before finding a durable bottom.
“If Bitcoin holds above $100K, we could see a consolidation phase followed by a gradual rebound toward $107K–$110K,” said one crypto strategist. “But a clean break below that mark would likely invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus toward $96K or even lower.”
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on short-term charts also supports the neutral-to-bearish narrative, hovering near oversold territory without a clear reversal signal. This suggests that while downside momentum may be slowing, a strong recovery has yet to emerge.
Outlook: $100K as the Line in the Sand
For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on its ability to defend the $100,000 support zone. A bounce from this area could help restore investor confidence and spark another attempt at $105,000 or higher. On the other hand, a decisive breakdown could open the door to deeper corrections that test the broader market’s resilience.
As traders closely monitor these technical levels, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s next move. Whether the bulls can regain control or the bears extend their dominance will likely define the tone of the crypto market heading into the next trading week.
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