Polymarket US widened the Los Angeles Chargers from -7.5 to -10.5 against the Arizona Cardinals overnight, while Kalshi moved from -9.5 to -10.5; neither venue’s moneyline shifted by three percentage points. Arizona’s backfield uncertainty—including Jeremiyah Love’s high-ankle sprain and limited work for James Conner and Trey Benson—is relevant background, but no report reviewed as of 6:05 a.m. ET on Aug. 22 confirms it caused the move.
The countdown is on, with only 18 days left until Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season. The action kicks off with Patriots (+170) vs. Seahawks (-191) on Wednesday, Sept. 9, in a Super Bowl rematch. That’s followed by the NFL’s first regular-season game in Australia, with 49ers (+170) vs. Rams (-187) in the Thursday night spotlight.
Week 1 odds also feature several marquee matchups, including Bills (-101) vs. Texans (-106), Cowboys (-151) vs. Giants (+134) on Sunday Night Football, and Broncos (+124) vs. Chiefs (-137) to close the slate on Monday Night Football. Here are the latest Week 1 odds and predictions, pulled directly from Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Week 1 matchups and opening lines
96 sides across 16 games, prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, FanDuel and DraftKings, updated Aug 23, 1:45am ET.
Tap any price to trade it.
Kalshi best on 19 of 32 sides
Kalshi best on 16 of 32 sides
Polymarket US best on 18 of 32 sides
Kalshi best on 49 of 96 sides
FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions do not offer NFL contracts in states with regulated online sportsbooks. Kalshi and Polymarket US remain available. Odds are shown for all operators so you can compare who has the best price.
None of these venues offer NFL event contracts in Nevada. Odds are shown for reference only.
KalshiiDeposit and trade at least $10 on Kalshi within your first 90 days and get a $15 trading bonus. The bonus is available for trade only and is not cashable. Must be used within 7 days. Eligible US states only.
Trade $10, Get $15
Polymarket USi18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Deposit $10, Get $20 Trading Bonus
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Bonus on Sign-up
DraftKingsiIn partnership with DraftKings. T&Cs Apply. View full offer terms before trading. Full disclaimer here: Event Contract Trading is offered by DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker and NFA member. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time trade req. Max. $50 issued as non-withdrawable Predictions Dollars that expire in 1 year. Terms: dkng.co/predictionspromo. Ends 8/23/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
Trade $5, Get $150 in Prediction Dollars
Patriots @ Seahawks
· NBC
49ers @ Rams
· Netflix · Melbourne
Buccaneers @ Bengals
· FOX
Bills @ Texans
· CBS
Ravens @ Colts
· CBS
Bears @ Panthers
· FOX
Saints @ Lions
· FOX
Browns @ Jaguars
· CBS
Falcons @ Steelers
· FOX
Jets @ Titans
· CBS
Packers @ Vikings
· CBS
Commanders @ Eagles
· FOX
Dolphins @ Raiders
Cardinals @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Giants
Broncos @ Chiefs
Prices include taker fees: Kalshi 0.07×P×(1-P) per contract, Polymarket US 0.10% of trade value, FanDuel and DraftKings $0.02 per contract. Maker orders on Kalshi cost less. See our prediction market fees guide for the full breakdown.
Kickoff times are ET and subject to NFL flexible scheduling.
Prices are indicative and change constantly. Verify on the venue before trading.
Prices include trading fees where a fee model is configured for the operator.
Prices exclude trading fees. Fee models differ by venue, so a fee-free comparison favours whichever venue charges most.
Best available price outlined.
As of
Kalshi Deposit and trade at least $10 on Kalshi within your first 90 days and get a $15 trading bonus. The bonus is available for trade only and is not cashable. Must be used within 7 days. Eligible US states only.
Polymarket US 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
FanDuel Credited within 72 hours of meeting the requirements. The bonus itself is non-withdrawable, but winnings from bonus-funded trades are immediately withdrawable. If the bonus trade wins, you keep the winnings portion but not the original bonus stake. Must be 18+
DraftKings In partnership with DraftKings. T&Cs Apply. View full offer terms before trading. Full disclaimer here: Event Contract Trading is offered by DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker and NFA member. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time trade req. Max. $50 issued as non-withdrawable Predictions Dollars that expire in 1 year. Terms: dkng.co/predictionspromo. Ends 8/23/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
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Week 1 odds and predictions
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Wednesday, Sept. 9 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +3.5 | +182 (36¢) | O 43.5 |
| Seahawks | -3.5 | -174 (64¢) | U 43.5 |
The Super Bowl LX rematch kicks off the 2026 season. For just the second time in 75 years, the NFL campaign opens on a Wednesday. The Seattle Seahawks (-182) enter as 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots (+190) after defeating New England 29-13 in February. The biggest storyline is whether Drake Maye and the Patriots have narrowed the gap during the offseason, or whether Seattle remains a tier above the defending AFC champions.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams | Thursday, Sept. 10 | 8:35 p.m. ET | Netflix | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +3.5 | +182 (36¢) | O 48.5 |
| Rams | -3.5 | -174 (64¢) | U 48.5 |
The NFL’s first-ever game in Australia is an intriguing showdown of NFC West foes. Both teams enter with genuine division title ambitions and legitimate Super Bowl cases, making this a must-see matchup. The Rams are the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl at both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the price rising after the team acquired Myles Garrett in early June.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +6.5 | +292 (26¢) | O 49.5 |
| Lions | -6.5 | -292 (75¢) | U 49.5 |
Detroit is one of the heaviest favorites of Week 1. They’re favored to win the NFC North this season and widely expected to rebound from last season’s fourth-place finish. While underdogs for the opener, New Orleans is expected to contend in the NFC South. This contest also features one of the highest over/under lines of opening week at 49.5 points, suggesting there could be plenty of points in the forecast.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | -2.5 | -135 (58¢) | O 47.5 |
| Panthers | +2.5 | +141 (42¢) | U 47.5 |
Chicago is a slight road favorite, with Carolina aiming to prove last season’s NFC South crown wasn’t a fluke. The Bears are at 25% to win the NFC North on Kalshi, behind the Lions and Packers. A clean Week 1 win on the road would be a strong early statement in what shapes up as a genuinely competitive division race. The Panthers are third in early NFC South pricing at 23%, behind the Buccaneers and Saints.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +1.5 | +106 (49¢) | O 43.5 |
| Texans | -1.5 | -102 (51¢) | U 43.5 |
The tightest line of the early Sunday window. The game opened with a line close to a coin flip and remains right in that range, with the two sides taking turns as a slight favorite. The Bills enter as the AFC East’s top choice at 57% on Kalshi, while Houston is favored at 43% to win the AFC South. A victory for either team could spike their division and conference pricing, while a defeat could send prices the other way.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.5 | -167 (63¢) | O 47.5 |
| Colts | +3.5 | +170 (37¢) | U 47.5 |
Baltimore is a road favorite against a Colts team that’s hoping Daniel Jones can quickly return from an Achilles tear and be ready to roll in Week 1. The Ravens lead AFC North pricing at 45% on Kalshi, ahead of the Bengals (34%). Indianapolis is at 19% to win the AFC South at Polymarket, behind the Texans (43%) and Jaguars (32%).
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +2.5 | +153 (40¢) | O 42.5 |
| Steelers | -2.5 | -160 (62¢) | U 42.5 |
When lines were released, the Steelers’ quarterback situation was still a question mark, leaving early lines on this game at close to a coin flip. Aaron Rodgers is back to give it another go, and Pittsburgh is now a clear favorite to get the Week 1 victory. Atlanta checks in at 21% to win the NFC South on Kalshi, last among the four teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals| Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +3.5 | +182 (36¢) | O 51.5 |
| Bengals | -3.5 | -182 (65¢) | U 51.5 |
Cincinnati is the home favorite and looks to bounce back from a 6-11 finish. The Bengals sit at 33% to win the AFC North on Kalshi, second only to Baltimore’s 45%. A strong Week 1 performance against Tampa Bay would be an early signal that better days could be on the way for Cincinnati and potentially tighten division pricing. The Buccaneers (31%) are slight favorites to win the NFC South, ahead of the Saints (30%).
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans| Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | +2.5 | +130 (44¢) | O 38.5 |
| Titans | -2.5 | -130 (57¢) | U 38.5 |
Tennessee is a slight favorite as they welcome a New York team that has lots of questions to answer following a 3-14 campaign. The Titans are at just 9% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, with the Jets at 4% to win the AFC East. Both franchises enter 2026 with low expectations and something to prove early.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | +7.5 | +344 (23¢) | O 40.5 |
| Jaguars | -7.5 | -344 (78¢) | U 40.5 |
Jacksonville is one of the largest favorites of the week. They won the AFC South a season ago, while Cleveland finished in the basement of the AFC North. The Jaguars, at 32% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, are well-positioned to contend for another division title. A dominant Week 1 home win could help set the tone, while a tighter game could impact expectations.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +4.5 | +199 (34¢) | O 47.5 |
| Eagles | -4.5 | -199 (67¢) | U 47.5 |
The game is being priced as a clear Eagles advantage in Week 1. A Commanders win here would immediately shift perception on the NFC East division market, a race where early pricing has the Eagles (40%) favored to take it down, ahead of the Cowboys (33%), Giants (15%), and Commanders (13%).
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings| Sunday, Sept. 13 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | +1.5 | +111 (48¢) | O 44.5 |
| Vikings | -1.5 | -106 (52¢) | U 44.5 |
Kalshi has Green Bay at 26% and Minnesota at 17% to win the NFC North. Detroit (35%) and Chicago (25%) in the mix set the stage for one of the most competitive chases on the board. Neither team can afford an early stumble in what shapes up as one of the more compelling matchups of the late Sunday window for Week 1, and a potential back-and-forth affair.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX |Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +3.5 | +190 (35¢) | O 40.5 |
| Raiders | -3.5 | -186 (65¢) | U 40.5 |
Las Vegas is a home favorite against a Dolphins team Kalshi views as the AFC East’s biggest longshot at 4%. Miami’s worst regular-season record odds of 24% on Kalshi make this a game the Raiders, at 7% to win the AFC West, genuinely need to win early to establish any credibility in a division where the top three teams are bunched within four points of each other.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers| Sunday, Sept. 13 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +10.5 | +441 (19¢) | O 46.5 |
| Chargers | -10.5 | -471 (83¢) | U 46.5 |
The most lopsided line of Week 1 by a significant margin. Polymarket US widened the Los Angeles Chargers from -7.5 to -10.5 against the Arizona Cardinals overnight, while Kalshi moved from -9.5 to -10.5. Arizona’s backfield remains unsettled, but no current report confirms that personnel news caused the spread move. The Chargers, at 34% to win the AFC West, open as heavy favorites in a game that should do little to move any market. The Cardinals, at 1% Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and 29% worst record odds, appear to be headed into what could be a challenging season of change, with Jacoby Brissett taking over under center.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Sunday, Sept. 13 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC (SNF) | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -2.5 | -141 (59¢) | O 48.5 |
| Giants | +2.5 | +144 (41¢) | U 48.5 |
Dallas is a road favorite for what should be an entertaining divisional primetime showdown. The NFC East race on Kalshi has Philadelphia on top at 40%, ahead of the Cowboys at 33% to win the division. The Giants are third at 15%, with hopes for significant improvement under new head coach John Harbaugh. Pricing has tightened on this matchup since the initial release, suggesting some traders are expecting a Week 1 statement from New York.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Monday, Sept. 14 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC (MNF) | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Team | Kalshi Spread | Kalshi Moneyline | Kalshi O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +2.5 | +130 (44¢) | O 42.5 |
| Chiefs | -2.5 | -130 (57¢) | U 42.5 |
Kansas City is a home favorite in one of Week 1’s most significant from a division market standpoint. Kalshi has the AFC West as the tightest division race in football: Chiefs 34%, Chargers 32%, and Broncos 30%. The winner of the MNF season opener is likely to see a price bump in that market. All signs point to Patrick Mahomes being ready to go, but his recovery remains one of the offseason’s defining subplots.
Missouri readers can compare current operators, legal status, and additional prediction markets in Missouri.
NFL prediction market landscape ahead of 2026 season
The NFL preseason continues this week, with games happening Thursday, August 20 through Sunday, August 23. Here is where the key markets stand as we continue counting down to the games that matter.
NFL futures at prediction markets
The Los Angeles Rams are the consensus Super Bowl favorites, trading at 16% on Kalshi and 15% on Polymarket. Behind them is a competitive chase for second place. The Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, and defending champion Seahawks are all jockeying for position, with prices moving between 6-9%.
On the conference side, the Rams are favored by a wide margin, with the Seahawks and Eagles priced as the biggest threats. Over in the AFC, probabilities are much tighter, with the Bills currently slightly ahead of the Ravens and Chiefs.
Division markets point to several compelling storylines. The AFC West is the tightest race on the board at Kalshi, with three teams trading within points of each other: Chiefs 33%, Chargers 32%, and Broncos 31%.
For the NFL MVP award, both platforms have it priced as a tight chase. Josh Allen is the leader on Kalshi at 11%, followed by Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson at 10%. On Polymarket, it’s Allen at 13%, ahead of Jackson (12%) and Herbert (11%).
NFL prediction market trading volume
Kalshi’s Super Bowl LXI market has logged over $67.8 million in trading volume before a single regular game has been played. The figure speaks to the growing role prediction markets are playing in how NFL fans engage with the league during the offseason.
The number will climb steadily through training camp, the preseason, and into the regular season as weekly trading activity accelerates. Preseason games and other futures markets are also attracting steady volume, and liquidity will only rise as we get deeper into the summer.
Notable Week 1 line moves
Prices continue to move for Bills vs. Texans, which has the potential to be one of Week 1’s most competitive showdowns. At the initial release, Houston was a slight favorite. It’s now listed as close to a coin flip, with the two clubs jockeying for the favored spot.
Probabilities have widened on the 49ers vs. Rams as the off-season moves along. Los Angeles opened as a pretty sizable favorite, but the spread widened after the club swung a blockbuster deal to bring Myles Garrett to town.
As the preseason moves along, there will be increased trading volume on all of the Week 1 matchups. The news cycle moves rapidly throughout August, and notable developments tend to translate into price moves.
What to expect for NFL prediction markets this season
The 2026 season represents another significant step in the growth of NFL prediction market trading. For traders, the practical implication is that the NFL is no longer just a sportsbook sport. It is a fully functioning prediction market ecosystem with real liquidity, regulated infrastructure, and a growing suite of contracts that will expand as the season progresses. Readers can compare prediction market apps and review current NFL promos before choosing where to trade Week 1 contracts.
Trading will remain active throughout the offseason, with volume and pricing sharpening as kickoff approaches. The Super Bowl market, already past $85 million in combined volume, will continue to attract significant trading activity through every week of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Related: See daily trading volume on NFL markets
Christopher Feery
Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Catena Media in 2021. He contributes in-depth analysis and guides on many igaming sites.
